Ghana consolidates its constitutional democracy while the French- and Russian-inspired autocracy in Syria collapses

Dear brothers and sisters,

We give thanks to the Almighty and Most Merciful God who sustains us every day. He has ordained that we should govern ourselves and responsibly maximize our freedom, rather than suffer under the yoke of tyranny. Cameroon is a country blessed by God but cursed by our self-imposed and French-protected politicians. Our predicament in this country must sharpen the way we look at the rest of the world. We should praise those countries making strides towards consolidated constitutional democracy that brings freedom to their people. We should carefully observe the fate of autocratic governments around the world to identify similarities with ours and perhaps discern some historical connections that can help us in our fight for liberation.

Today, we congratulate our brothers and sisters in Ghana on their recent presidential election, which shows that Ghana is further consolidating their constitutional democracy. Secondly, we want to comment on the fall of the dictatorship in Syria, whose historical roots can be traced to French and Russian influences in that country. This point further demonstrates why nations touched by France have hardly enjoyed the freedom and prosperity that effective constitutional democracy promises. We will finish by reflecting on the lessons we can learn from these two countries. We do not share an optimistic outlook for the new Syria, given the method of the liberation, but we, Cameroonians, must take the constitutional democratic path to the liberation of this beautiful country of ours, this Cameroon.

  1. Ghana further consolidates its constitutional democracy by electing the former President, Mr. John Mahama, of the National Democratic Congress, to his second and last term. He defeated the candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party, Mr. Mahamudu Bawumia, by 56.55% to 41.61%.

1.1. Some political scientists assert that a constitutional democracy enters a consolidated phase when power has changed between political parties at least two times in a peaceful constitutional manner. Others further suggest that a presidential system with sufficient freedom of political parties will converge to a system of two strong parties, and the winning candidate will generally score less than 60% in free and fair elections. This shows that the opposing party constitutes a strong balancing force that constrains the ruling party to govern well, partly out of fear of losing the next election.

1.2. These reasonable political observations seem to hold true for Ghana. From the perspective of political parties, power has changed hands in Ghana many times, and the country now practically has a strong two-party system. In the presidential election of December 7th, there were 13 presidential candidates. But as the results have shown, the winning candidate had a solid score, but it was less than 60%, indicating that the outgoing ruling party will now constitute a formidable opposition to Mr. John Mahama who will be serving his last 4-year term.

1.3. In our post last week, we predicted Mr. Mahama’s victory. This was based on opinion polls which both showed that Mahama was ahead. One poll showed Mahama with 51.1% and Bawumia with 30.8%. Another poll showed Mahama with 48.5% and Bawumia with 39.4%. We can thus say the polls rightly predicted the winner. The weakness of the polls was the over estimation of the strengths of some of the minor candidates in the race. Perhaps people did initially show sympathy for these minor candidates but inside the ballot box, voters tend to vote for the top two candidates in a stable presidential system. In the final outcome of the election, we see that a total of 98% of the voters voted for the top two candidates, reflecting a strong two-party system.

1.4. About 10.9 million of the 18 million registered voters in Ghana turned out to vote, constituting a turnout of about 60%. Now, Ghana is about the size of Cameroon; if its population is higher, it should be higher by about 1-3 million people. The voting age in Ghana as in all other African countries, is 18 years. Only in Cameroon has the regime tried to maintain the French colonial fear of massive participation in elections, thus setting the minimum voting age as high as 20 years. Also, the barriers to voter registration in Ghana are low. Identity Cards are easier to get in Ghana. They are free for first time ID card issuance. Renewal of an ID card costs 60 Ghanaian cedis or about 2500 of our colonial francs. Replacement of a lost ID is 125 Ghanaian cedis or about 5300 colonial francs. Compare this with the highly centralized and costly citizen tax in Cameroon called the ID card fee with its tortuous issuance process. This is a shame. We are asked to pay a tax for being citizens who can, and should vote with no restrictions.

1.5. Let us return to Ghana. What explains the loss of the ruling party’s candidate? Some will point to the economic situation in Ghana for which the ruling party is blamed. Others will point to the fact that Mr. Mahama is of a different class; he has been running against Mr. Akufo-Addo since 2012. Mahama defeated Akufo-Addo in 2012, lost to Akufo-Addo in 2016 and 2020. The term-limited Akufo-Addo handed over to a newer less experienced competitor, Bawumia. But Others may say even Mr. Akufo-Addo would have lost, were he not term-limited, because of the current economic situation in Ghana.

1.6. The main economic issue facing Ghana is its debt distress. Already plagued by a high debt to GPD ratio, the COVID pandemic presented the government with extra challenges. As stable as Ghana’s constitutional democracy is, a trend has been observed such that incumbents tend to borrow a lot of money and start projects as they run for re-election. Some projects of previous governments are abandoned or poorly managed. These are problems that can be fixed by non-partisan institutions for the sustainable continuation of the state. Ghana’s debt to GDP ratio stands at 60% while its tax to GDP ratio is about 14%, a bit lower than Cameroon’s tax burden. Advanced economies have tax to GDP ratios above 20%. This higher tax to GDP ratios and high sovereign credit worthiness make some western countries run a higher debt to GDP ratio without economic distress. France, for instance, has a debt to GDP ratio above 100%. Their case is a bit complicated and obscured by their taxation of colonies. Japan has a much higher debt to GDP ratio. For Japan, much of the debt is internal and the economy is quite large, the third in the world. Japan’s debt is also mostly domestic, and the state has a higher domestic saving. But countries such as Ghana with low creditworthiness and high external debts can experience debt distress with significant negative effects on the economy. For instance, this can also lead to inflation through secondary economic causes.

1.7. Ghana’s constitutional democracy can be further improved by making governments more accountable, especially during re-election years of sitting presidents. It has been said that nomination of presidential candidates is largely dominated by a group of aristocrats from certain legacy families. The nomination process for the two parties can be made more transparent, more competitive, and open, as in the USA. This would allow for new voices to emerge. That said, it is generally believed that John Mahama, the former Presbyterian who now worships with the Assemblies of God, is positively regarded by his compatriots. They look to his leadership to turn the country around. He comes to power with a strong NDC majority in parliament. From a nearly split parliament, this election delivered 185 of the 276 seats to the NDC and the ruling NPP only secured 87 seats, though still significant to advance critical debate and oversight of the government. Only 4 seats went to the other independent candidates. We wish the people of Ghana good luck as they navigate the economic challenges facing their country. In four years, they will decide whether they should give NPP another chance or try the NDC successor of John Mahama.

  1. The French- and Russian-inspired autocracy in Syria, recently represented by Bashar Al-Assad, has been brought down by Syrian rebels and foreign backers, after a civil war caused more than 600 000 deaths.

2.1. Although Syria is very far from Cameroon, its tragic encounter with the French after WWI bears some similarities that should interest us. Its ancient history is more complicated, but in the 19th century, Syria, like Palestine and other places in the Middle East, were part of the large Ottoman Empire. During WWI, the Ottoman Empire was an ally of the Germans, though they entered the war late. Thus, the defeat of the Germans and their allies led to the loss of territories under Ottoman Empire influence, just like Kamerun was taken from the Germans. Syria initially set up a monarchy following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, but Syria soon became a League of Nation mandate, administered by the French. It is said that French had the option to reconcile their internal differences and build a modern Syrian nation, but they chose to instrumentalize the existing divisions and preserve their French position as the only people who could manage the internal rivalries.

2.2. In 1925, a Syrian sultan led a revolt against the French to free their country. France brought in troops from Morocco and Senegal and succeeded to defeat the revolt.

2.3. But the pressure for independence from France was palpable. In 1936, France and Syria negotiated and signed a treaty of independence. However, the French Parliament refused to ratify the treaty in what seems to have been a clear plan from the beginning. Thus, the independence never came to fruition.

2.4. Syria briefly came under the control of Vichy France, a French collaboration with Hitler’s fascism. But Syria was soon freed by French and British soldiers. Continued pressure from Syrian nationalists with assistance from British troops forced the French to leave Syria in 1946. The French never leave a region they have influenced without bequeathing something typically French. They left a culture of coups d’etat. Between 1948 and 1960s, there were many coups and multiparty politics was only attempted briefly but abolished. Syria was also drawn into Pan Arab wars against the emerging nation of Israel.

2.5. The Egyptian nationalist, Gamal Abdel Nasser, brought Syria closer to the Soviet Union. In 1958, convinced by Nasser, Syria joined Egypt to form the one country, the short-lived United Arab Republic. In 1961, following a coup by Syrian nationalists, Syria seceded from the United Arab Republic.

2.6. Following the chaos of the secessionist coup, so-called Ba’athist socialists carried out a coup to install a totalitarian state. Baathism is a philosophy of one-party socialist state practiced in Syria and Iraq. It is comparable to the attempts of setting up atheistic socialistic governments in USSR, China, Cuba, etc. This kind of socialism is totally different from socialism in protestant states, where individual freedom and multiparty politics prevent any emergence of totalitarianism.

2.7. The installation of Baathist one-party dominance and totalitarianism in Syria was followed by the coming to power in 1970 of Hafiz Al-Assad, the father of the recently deposed Bashar Al-Assad. Hafiz Al-Assad nurtured good relations with the Soviet Union, and later, Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He ruled Syria with an iron fist, restricting any dissent. He died in June 2000. Hafiz Al-Assad had planned for his first son, Bassel Al-Assad, to succeed him, but Bassel died in a car accident in 1994. After Hafiz death in 2000, his second son, Bashar Al-Assad, trained as a medical doctor and nurturing little political ambition, was brought in to take over from his father. This patrimonial state behavior is common in systems with French and totalitarian socialistic traces. Bashar ran unopposed and was elected president. Thus, began another 24 of the 54 years of the Assad dynasty at the helm of Syrian politics.

2.8. The Assads come from a community of minorities called Alawites, a term popularized by the French. Alawites constitute 10% of the population but like the Tutsi in Rwanda, the French made them feel like they were more natural leaders. Minorities were specifically recruited into the military and given special training. It seems that it was the French view that nurturing and sustaining divisions among Syrians would work in French long-term interests.

2.9. The Syrian Civil war started with the Arab Spring in 2011. We recall that Tunisians and Egyptians protested against their leaders and succeeded to get them to resign. That is the way things should work in a country where popular sovereignty is effectively practiced. Power belongs to the people, and even between elections, they can demand for the resignation of a bad leader or any office holder. They preserve their country and constitution but get rid of a bad office holder. In Libya and Syria, however, these protests didn’t proceed well. Gadhafi’s crackdown against protesters in Libya coincided with the wishes of Libya’s and Gadhafi’s western enemies. He was taken out by western powers and Libya plunged into chaos. Assad tapped into existing Russian and Iranian support to maintain himself in power against the wishes of his people. The French, now out of favor with the Assad dynasty, allied with USA and other Sunni states to fight a proxy war through the rebels. This is how you lose your country to foreign powers. Assad first sold out his country by cracking down on his people, counting on Iran and Russia. It doesn’t matter what you think of USA or Russia; the key point here is that the armed method, the civil war that followed, led to about 600 000 deaths and has still ended with Assad fleeing his country. Syria has no clearly defined boundaries with Israel because of ongoing conflicts. But it now seems that the rebels who deposed Assad took advantage of Israel’s war against Lebanon and strikes in Iran. They seem to enjoy US, Turkish, Israeli, French and Saudi material or moral support.

2.10. We cannot predict that Syria will enter a period of peace and stability, grounded in constitutional democracy. The country may continue to be ruled by people who do not have enough support of their own people, but who, tremblingly, rely on foreign powers. They will thus also expose themselves to the threats of being removed by the enemies of the foreign powers that currently support the leadership. The true spirit of constitutional democracy seems still far from Syria; it is repelled by corpses of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, the trauma of political prisoners, and the calculating games of foreign powers who never mean well for any people incapable of governing themselves without civil wars.

  1. Cameroon must choose the path of constitutional democracy, avoid civil wars and also avoid the transfer of power to another handpicked successor without a competitive and transparent election.

3.1. We can tell from the tragedy of Syria that civil wars are bad and that entangling the fate of your nation with the interests of competing world power does not help one’s people.

3.2. We can discern from the truncated tragic history of Syria above that nations once governed by France are cursed with coups and tyranny. We can also discern that such a disease is not cured by running towards Russia – another French-inspired autocracy in many ways. We can trade with Russians and learn a lot from them in science and technology. They have no meaningful political theory to teach us; they have never tasted freedom as a people in their own country.

3.3. With respect to the ousting of Assad in Syria, let us not be tempted to celebrate or copy the methods of the rebels. The blood of their compatriots is on the hands and on the hands of the Assad regime. There is an efficient way, through massive voter registration, massive voting, determined defense of the transparency of elections, and defense of the results of the election by all targeted means necessary, without ever plunging our beautiful country into a bloodbath teeming with the blood of our brothers and sisters. We can get on the path towards consolidated constitutional democracy and a strong two-party system, like Ghana’s, without the carnage we have seen in Syria. Freedom is possible without such barbarism coming from those who yearn for that freedom. We need every Cameroonian to stay alive and build this nation after we have cured ourselves of the French curse that hovers over all nations touched by that European nation.

May God bless you. And may God bless this beautiful nation, Cameroon, as we defend our constitution and elections against any attempts to once more usurp our popular sovereignty.

Dr. Benjamin Akih, on behalf of

English Cameroon for a united Cameroon

Serving the nation since 2017

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