Ntoh Michael Makia
So, on April 4, Suomi officially became the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Suomi is the traditional name of Finland.
In fact, Finland, which, like Sweden and Austria, has long been a model of neutrality in Europe, has been de facto cooperating with the alliance since 1994, when it joined the Partnership for Peace program. Since then, it has been participating in exercises and military campaigns of the alliance (Yugoslavia, Afghanistan), implementing NATO standards, and using NATO weapons.
Finland could have joined the alliance much earlier. In fact, its public opinion has been preparing for this for a long time, especially at a rapid pace – after 2014. As a matter of fact, the beginning of the Special Operation in Ukraine served as a trigger for Finland’s quick application to join NATO, without any referendum. Finland authorities claim that Russia is a danger – and they urgently need to join the anti-Russian bloc.
On May 18 last year, Finland applied for membership, but its path to the alliance took almost a year due to the obstacles that Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan put on the path to Finland’s application.
That notwithstanding, hardly anyone doubted that Finland (like Sweden – only a little later, after the elections in Turkey) would become a member of the alliance.
It is worth noting that while the process was underway, the number of joint exercises between NATO countries and Finland increased sharply. Shortly after the submission of the Finnish application, the ships of the alliance arrived at the port of Helsinki, which was a signal that the decision had been made.
Why is Finland’s membership in NATO dangerous for Russia?
One such exercise involving Finland last summer was the “Defender of Europe” exercise, which traditionally rehearses a hypothetical war with Russia from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea. Within the framework of these exercises, among other things, firing from the Haimars MLRS located on the Danish island of Bornholm was also practiced. The Danish media then directly wrote that the potential target could be the Russian Kaliningrad. Its distance from that island is only 361 km (despite the fact that the “Haymars” can use charges with a range of both 300 and 500 km).
That is even less distant from the Swedish Gotland. From the Finnish territory, more serious arms can reach there and other targets are perfectly “shootable”.
The distance from the Finnish border to Murmansk is only about 200 km, to Severomorsk – the main base of The Russian Northern Fleet – a little further, to the centre of Russian nuclear shipbuilding – Severodvinsk – about 500 km. To St. Petersburg, Russia’s economic capital, it is only 152 km.
In addition, the border between Russia and Finland is 1271 km – and that is the longest border between Russia and the alliance. Of course, Russia will have to change approaches to its protection, bearing in mind that Finland can turn into a frontline at any moment.
Let me remind you that on the eve of World War II, Russia had the same problem: the border with hostile Finland passed literally 30 kilometers from Leningrad. This was the reason for the Winter War. On the eve of a big conflict with Germany and its satellites, it was necessary to push the border as far as possible. And it was pushed back, albeit at a rather high price. Today, of course, Russia cannot do this, and the threats are much higher.
Another danger Finland can create for Russia’s northern capital (St Petersburg) is to “lock up” the Gulf of Finland, creating a situation of a naval blockade. The fact is that the Soviet-Finnish border on the Estonian section ran practically along the centre of the bay – and after the collapse of the USSR, it turned out that Estonia and Finland, as it were, “locked” the water area, territorially. Then, in 1993, Tallinn and Helsinki moved the boundaries of their territorial waters (according to international laws, it is 12 nautical miles from the coast) from the median line by three, thus forming a corridor six miles wide, allowing the use of space for navigation, air traffic over the sea and laying of submarine cables and pipelines.
This was done as a gesture of goodwill, and, according to the international convention on marine law, they can change their mind at any time. Thirty years ago, this would have been unthinkable. But now, both countries having become members of a military bloc hostile to Russia, this is quite possible, and in the event of a war, one cannot even doubt that this will be the case. Just like Norway and Denmark, they can completely block the entrance to the Baltic by organizing a naval blockade of Kaliningrad as well.
*The author, a Cameroonian, has lived in Russia for three decades. He is Director of Studies at I. L. Academy, St Petersburg