Analysis by Dr Essomba Dieudonné
The 2025 Presidential Election presents a first-class opportunity to open a transition that carries the structural changes required to relaunch Cameroon.
The Biya regime, which has lasted too long, has accumulated too many structural rigidities to survive its author—even in the event of a change with another CPDM candidate. It is an obsolete, exhausted system that offers no prospect of responding to the very challenges it created. And in any case, given the age of its captain, the transition is already here; if it does not happen explicitly this year, at the very least, it is time to outline its broad contours.
The reforms required to put Cameroon back on track demand a Head of State capable of a systemic approach to the Nation’s problems—one who seeks out the essentials and the root causes, focuses on them, and builds a programme that addresses fundamental issues with definitive and lasting solutions.
Such a Head of State is not bogged down by petty matters, operations, and details that fall under the responsibilities of the Government, Regions, or Communes.
Upon observation, the so-called Opposition-Ministers being presented today as alternatives to Biya do not belong to this class of personalities: I name BELLO BOUBA, TCHIROMA, and KAMTO.
None of these individuals has ever demonstrated strategic thinking on any of Cameroon’s problems. They merely follow trends while focusing their energy on the conquest of the throne through emotion and political tribalism.
One of the occasions where a true statesman should have demonstrated strategic analysis was the Anglophone crisis. He should have anticipated it, based on several elements—including analyses by the late ABOUEM A TCHOYI—then made recommendations to the Government or taken a clear stance.
None of them did.
Later, when the crisis entered its bloody phase, none of them urged the Government to consider the only reform capable of mitigating it: returning to a renewed federal model. Instead, they followed the Government, which was thinking for them, confirming their strategic blindness, hidden behind the catch-all solution of “negotiation” as if it were a groundbreaking idea.
Worse still, two of them tried to exploit it politically.
First, TCHIROMA: when federalism appeared as the obvious solution, he, in a shocking display of zeal, took it upon himself to threaten the media that mentioned federalism, equating it with secession! And now, suddenly, he has become a federalist.
As for Kamto, he saw in it a golden opportunity to pursue his thirst for the throne at all costs. He tried to mingle with the rebels without convincing them, lacking a clear and lucid vision of the problem. We saw his hesitations, as his unstable positions shifted from regionalization to organizing a debate on the form of the State… all while presenting a unitary programme in which he promises to build schools in every subdivision of Cameroon—a level of centralization that even Biya’s centralized bureaucracy would no longer dare admit!
Bello Bouba, not fully converted to federalism either, first suggested Regions with special status before an eventual debate—an absurdity adopted by Biya that only poured oil on the fire. Secessionists interpreted it as second-class colonization by Francophones imposing “special statuses” dear to the French model. Quite the finesse!
These are people without conviction, drifting in ambiguous positions—a reflection of their radical incapacity to develop strategic approaches to Cameroon’s main challenges.
At least two candidates are clear in their stance: BIYA, who refuses to give up his unitary Cameroon, and OSIH, who intends to establish a federal Cameroon. Both hold unshakable convictions and express no doubt that they are right. This is exactly what is expected from true political leaders—not people who surf trends, hesitate, and switch sides at every turn.
I chose the Anglophone crisis because it is one of the simplest challenges; as for the others, they don’t even understand them! And these are the people who claim they can replace Biya?
Let’s be serious!
When we look at OSIH’s programme, we see that he has conducted a proper assessment of Cameroon: identifying its main challenges, obstacles, stakes, and guiding principles for solutions. He then laid out strategic axes that make up a coherent document and a convincing programme. He knows where he wants to take Cameroon.
As for his profile, OSIH is a refreshing change from those lifeless bureaucrats, rigid in procedures and indifferent to results.
Now, some want to entertain the illusion of a coalition that could defeat the ruling party based solely on the logic of “Biya must go.” This coalition would rally around a candidate from the Far North, given the number of voters there, and with the possible support of Kamto, who would seize the opportunity to avenge his exclusion by the electoral authorities.
Completely delusional! Politics cannot be played with such naivety.
First, the Far North is home to disparate communities with no political homogeneity—quite the opposite! There are antagonistic political positions along community fault lines, leaving no hope of mechanically rallying the vote to any candidate.
Second, in the event of ethnic-based voting encouraged by his opponents, Biya is not disadvantaged at all! He starts with a solid electoral base of over 25% in his strongholds and enjoys extraordinary penetration into all communities thanks to the public offices he distributes. As we see today, every regional elite is competing with contributions to support his campaign. This even occurs in Bamileke and Fulbe strongholds, where his party still remains largely dominant.
It is hard to imagine by what magic such a candidate could beat Biya in the current sociological context, given the tribal logic that makes Biya’s victory inevitable.
I have said and repeated: the only strategy capable of defeating Biya is the aggregation of change forces around a unifying programme in which every community in Cameroon recognises itself.
And this programme is simple: the sharing of money and positions at Etoudi, through a federal model.
This is Joshua OSIH’s message.
And this is the right path!
Dieudonné Essomba