By Franklin Sone Bayen
The euphoria around the new president of the Senate as the constitutional leader of an eventual transition in case of vacancy at the Presidency of the Republic could be shortlived. If speculation that creation of the post of Vice President is in the works, Cameroon would rather witness a succession, not a transition in case of an established permanent incapacity, resignation or death of 93-year-old and visibly ailing President Paul Biya.
Furthermore, going by the obvious resolve of the ruling Beti bloc to retain power, post-Biya, it is perceptible that be it a Senate President who leads a brief transition or a Vice President who steps into the shoes of a departed President to complete his term of office, Beti henchmen will keep some cards close to their chest for a possible scheme they would wish should return power to them in the short run.
When Abdoulaye Boubakary emerged as the new President of the Senate on 18 March, we, analysts, made quick to clutch onto the provision in Article 6(4) of the 1996 constitution, amended in 2008 and currently in force, which makes the Senate President the one to lead a transition for 20 to 120 days before organizing a fresh presidential election.
That line of reasoning disregarded increasing hints that the authorities in Yaounde were set to present a bill to Parliament to modify the constitution and create the post of Vice President. Were this to come to pass, such a Vice President would be a direct and full-fledged successor, not a temporary transitional head. In that case, the Senate President would have no transition role to play as there would be no transition. The Vice President would be sworn in within hours of a vacancy.
A Vice President is a deputy president who sits in for the president in case of temporary or permanent unavailability. Though the method of picking a Vice President differs in different political traditions and countries, depending on their constitutional provisions, the general practice is that from the United States through South Africa to South Sudan, Vice Presidents are constitutional, full-fledged successors, not transition leaders.
The general practice across political systems is for the Vice President to be elected on the same ballot with and as running mate of the presidential candidate, but in certain countries like South Africa, there are provisions for the Vice President to be appointed.
Under the provisions of the Federal Republic of Cameroon constitution of 1961, the Vice President (John Ngu Foncha, essentially) was elected on the same ballot as presidential candidate Ahmadou Ahidjo. However, in 1970, President Ahidjo sacked Foncha who was elected alongside him in 1965 and appointed unelected Solomon Tandeng Muna as Vice President.
In that capacity, the House Speaker was designated to be a full-fledged successor to the president as obtained in the Ivory Coast in 1993 where National Assembly Speaker, Henri Konan Bedie succeeded President Felix Houphouet Bobigny when he died.
But, in Cameroon, that changed with the constitutional amendment of June 1979 which made the Prime Minister the constitutional successor. It is under that provision that Prime Minister Paul Biya since 1975, succeeded Ahidjo upon the resignation of the latter in November 1982, till date, 43 years and counting.
For years now, discussions over President Biya’s health and fitness have been perceived and sometimes treated as an issue of national security and a classified topic but recent public appearances of the president and backstage pictures of him released to the public, suggest speculations over Biya’s capacity are now an open secret and cause for major strategic concern.